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Old 04-30-2004, 07:13 AM   #1
linnet
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Default For those who think deterrence doesn't work

http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2003/31569.htm
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Old 04-30-2004, 07:21 AM   #2
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I found this statistic interesting:

"A total of 307 persons were killed in the attacks of 2003, far fewer than the 725 killed during 2002"

Can we add the totals for civilian Iraqi deaths and our soldiers to that number? I mean, this so-called "deterrence" is caused by terrorism which entails that the deaths of civilian Iraqis and our soldiers are caused by terrorism. In which case, the numbers are higher than ever before.
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Old 04-30-2004, 07:44 AM   #3
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I do have to wonder what they consider an act of terrorism.

Just an example: how many 'acts' would the attack on the World Trade Center be? Would each individual hijacking count as an act? That's 4. Then, would each plane crashing into a building count? Another 3. I'd say that was one single act (since it was coordinated as such), but they might define it differently.

Also, what of the attacks in Iraq against our soldiers? Are they acts of terrorism or acts of war? We routinely call them terrorist attacks, but to claim only 307 deaths in 2003 tells me we aren't counting those for the purposes of this report.

Note that it was
Released by the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism
Something I have never heard of before. Someone dig up background on it?
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Old 04-30-2004, 08:03 AM   #4
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Francis X. Taylor was sworn in as the State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism with the rank of Ambassador at Large on July 13, 2001.

The State Department is the lead federal agency dealing with international terrorism, and Ambassador Taylorís office (S/CT) has primary responsibility for developing, coordinating, and implementing U.S. counterterrorism policy. On behalf of the Secretary, Ambassador Taylor represents the Department on the Counterterrorism Policy Coordinating Committee, and S/CT chairs the interagency working groups dealing with counterterrorism that develop and coordinate policy. His office plays a leading role on the Department of Stateís counterterrorism task forces organized to coordinate responses to international terrorist incidents. Ambassador Taylorís responsibilities include coordinating U.S. Government efforts to improve counterterrorism cooperation with foreign governments, including the policy and planning of the Departmentís Antiterrorism Training Assistance Program.




http://www.ifa-usapray.org/archive_t...2C%202001.html
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Old 04-30-2004, 08:06 AM   #5
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Ah, so it's one of the knee-jerk bureaucracies.

I sort of figured from the complete lack of detail in the 'report' linked. Just a bunch of meaningless numbers, saying "We're doing our job. Now give us our funding!"
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Old 04-30-2004, 08:37 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by AresProphet
Ah, so it's one of the knee-jerk bureaucracies.

I sort of figured from the complete lack of detail in the 'report' linked. Just a bunch of meaningless numbers, saying "We're doing our job. Now give us our funding!"
Knee jerk reaction to what again?
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Old 04-30-2004, 09:20 AM   #7
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You know what I mean.

Don't assume I'm attacking anything. After 9/11 action had to be taken, but in hindsight I think an Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism seems a little redundant. Considering the utter lack of information given in that report I'm inclined to think that, at this point, it's merely a diversion of federal funds for someones pet project (or worse, personal pocket).

And by "knee-jerk" I mean "reflex", essentially what it's a synonym for. Although perhaps it's a bit odd that our reflexive response to a national tragedy is to create bureaucracies....
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Old 04-30-2004, 10:37 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by AresProphet
You know what I mean.

Don't assume I'm attacking anything. After 9/11 action had to be taken, but in hindsight I think an Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism seems a little redundant. Considering the utter lack of information given in that report I'm inclined to think that, at this point, it's merely a diversion of federal funds for someones pet project (or worse, personal pocket).

And by "knee-jerk" I mean "reflex", essentially what it's a synonym for. Although perhaps it's a bit odd that our reflexive response to a national tragedy is to create bureaucracies....

Don't assume I am doing anything but pointing out a mistake. Try reading before posting:

Francis X. Taylor was sworn in as the State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism with the rank of Ambassador at Large on

Drum Roll

July 13, 2001
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Old 04-30-2004, 10:50 AM   #9
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For some reason I swore I read that as September 13.

That's what I get for not sleeping in 32 hours.

Carry on.
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Old 04-30-2004, 04:31 PM   #10
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More detail from the whole report (just one page of it in the original link). The statistical review shows long term trends (which are downwards), and groups some things by region. (Attacks in the middle east increased last year, the decrease was due to changes in south and east asia. The previous year it was due to decreased terrorist activity in Columbia) Attacks in Palestine and Iraq are not counted as international terrorism.
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Old 04-30-2004, 06:36 PM   #11
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8 less attacks than the year before? Wow! what a downward trend.

Looks to me like this is spin
http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache...hl=en&ie=UTF-8
This chart shows that the basically terrorists attacked US interests
169 times in 1999 and 158 times in 2002. Seems to me like there is not much of a trend here.
It also shows that Attacks against American interests are on the rise as opposed to attacks against non-American interests. In 2002 we were 52% of attacks, in 199 we were 43% of attacks. Seems to me like there is no deterrent whatsoever.
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Old 04-30-2004, 09:21 PM   #12
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What the hell, Lets add more attacks and make 03,04 the worst years ever.

Huh Bumble?,
I'm sure CNN, ABC, NBC, and the rest can muster up
better figures to embolden the terrorists to attack AmeirKa more.

Amerika is the land of the disillusioned and the home of the terrorists. Yes?

Only the UN knows whats best for America. Yep. Just as soon as America pay's them
enough money to figure out how.


God Bless America
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Old 05-01-2004, 06:58 AM   #13
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Bumbleroot you are a tool. I don't care if it's 8 less attacks or 1 less attacks. Any decline in attacks is a good thing.
What is with you?
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Old 05-01-2004, 08:08 AM   #14
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Caelie that's not the point.

A decrease of 8 attacks does not mean there is a trend towards a decline. Hell, you can't attribute that to anything; it could be well within a margin of error in a statistical sample.

People won't go apeshit over a "trend" for a stock market increase based on one single day's closing price being a few points higher. It may drop 10 times as much the next day, unless there is historical evidence to show that there is, in fact, a trend.

Confounding variables abound, also. Can we really say that any decrease is due to a preference for invasion over diplomacy? It appears the attacks in Iraq don't count as acts of terrorism; are the terrorists just busy there instead of elsewhere? Have they actually been able to wreak more havoc, but on a technicality of calling it a "war zone" we believe we're safer?

I'm very skeptical of such a specific definition.
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Old 05-01-2004, 09:23 AM   #15
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Calie, so if we have 7 failed attacks, that is worse than one successfull?
An intereseting view.
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Old 05-01-2004, 07:41 PM   #16
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The decrease of 8 attacks in 2002-2003 is far lower than the average decrease in terrorist attacks in the past 20 years, so it would be very disingeneous to claim that the decrease is somehow related to the recent "War on Terrorism".
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Old 05-01-2004, 08:09 PM   #17
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They tend to be grasping for any good news since everything they touch is pretty much broken.
Something like this...
Ooooh we are putting an end to terrorism. Out of 350 attacks last year, there is a downward trend (because of our war on terrorism). This year we have 6 less than last year. (Don't tell the people this doesn't include the 45 attacks in Iraq)
Its called spin- this is nothing but spin.
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Old 05-01-2004, 08:16 PM   #18
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And yet, he is leading in the polls. That has to be really baffling.
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Old 05-01-2004, 08:47 PM   #19
Zolmaz Zo'Boto
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Originally Posted by bumbleroot
They tend to be grasping for any good news since everything they touch is pretty much broken.
Something like this...
Ooooh we are putting an end to terrorism. Out of 350 attacks last year, there is a downward trend (because of our war on terrorism). This year we have 6 less than last year. (Don't tell the people this doesn't include the 45 attacks in Iraq)
Its called spin- this is nothing but spin.
It's not spin when you look at the numbers Bumble.

America and our coalition are winning the war on terrorism. Does that bother you?
It "does not"!, bother me in the least. Today I went to a mall and spent 140-bucks
on clothes! *GASP* tomorrow my 1200-dollah Neptune washer is being delivered.
*GASP* Guess the world is going to hell for the weak, not the strong. Lazy Suckers.


God Bless America

Zolmaz Zo'Boto (When my daughter reaches 23, she will have over 120k for college, and more., Did you save for your childs future?)

Edit: Did your parents save for yours? If not, you can change the history of
your own future. Invest so you're children are educated. 100-bucks a month
is all it takes through a childs adolescence to create a trust that will change
the history of your family tree. Yes, even after you're gone. How do you think
the poor get rich>? The lottery?? NOT! Invest for you're future and the future
of your children. Amen to those who do because I see their homes every day.

Last edited by Zolmaz Zo'Boto; 05-01-2004 at 08:57 PM.
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