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Old 04-22-2004, 08:15 AM   #1
bumbleroot
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Default What I think it will take

Today I don't think that the UN can fix Iraq. I think it will take an Arab solution to fix it. I think the UN needs to be involved in getting this to happen though. Regardless, I also think that it would require a new infusion of force on the ground.

If I were to make a plan it would be this....
- Ask the UN to go to neighboring countries- Saudi Arabia and Jordan to start with, to form an interim government and place it in Iraq. The philosophy would be a generic government whose responsibility is to provide for the general welfare but not the common defense.
- Increase military presence to 400,000 or 500,000 soldiers.
- Have the UN, Nato and the US provide the additional forces.
- Impose strict Marshall law on Iraq until it is completely calm.
- Place armed guards every quarter mile on every commerce route and all supply routes, thus guarantee secure deliveries and reconstruction efforts.
- Back up the armed guards with a squad of armed and armored fighting units every two miles along these routes.
- Every ten miles have a larger support squad in place
- Have the Arab government run the country until there is a solution in place for them to govern themselves.
- In the meantime, allow each sect, the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shiites to elect an equal number of representatives to a congressional committee. Have these members work to form the government free of any American role.
- We and the UN and NATO would provide any defense necessary, but have no role in the political other than to allow them to come up with the solutions they see necessary.
-Don't discontinue the reconstruction. Instead we need to be training Iraqis to have the businesses of reconstruction themselves. By doing this, we would foster free trade in Iraq and help them establish a capitalist society. Which in turn would foster a country which seeks Freedom not tyranny.
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Old 04-22-2004, 08:25 AM   #2
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As it stands, Iraq is now a poison chalice for the UN.

I agree that getting the more moderate Arab countries to take a leading role in Iraq, with the continued support of the coalition seems to be the best way forward.
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Old 04-22-2004, 08:38 AM   #3
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I'm not sure I agree. Iraq isnt a poison chalice but vindication.

People talk of 1441 and say that it was justification to go to war. The UN has said differently. We went to war without their support no matter if our politicians believe it was apparant. Now it's clear the mess is getting bigger.

What we're going to find within the next few months is that once we hand over Iraq to an Iraqi government western troops will still be required to keep a tentative peace.
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Old 04-22-2004, 09:09 AM   #4
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It is broken now and needs to be fixed. I don't think constant warring is the answer. I think fixing it is the answer.
To assume that it is going to be Democratic in the process is a bad approach. We need to let the Iraqis assume the government they choose. We have made mistakes there simply to put quick political fixes on the problem. We need to have a pure solution. The approach we are taking is not correct. We can not force the Iraqis into a government that they are not buying into. It is destined to fail if we do. We can not force them into American choices. We are destined to further anti-American sentiment if we do. We have one chance to get this right. We need to do it right while we still have some allies.

Last edited by bumbleroot; 04-22-2004 at 01:35 PM.
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Old 04-22-2004, 01:11 PM   #5
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Time is indeed running out. The more countries that get involved, the better. This is percieved as a US occupation and people resent it. There needs to be a change in the perception of what is going on there or it will be a social and political failure.
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Old 04-22-2004, 05:49 PM   #6
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Bumble I think all of those issues are bandaids. The core problem with Iraq is deciding how to handle the Sunni / Shi'ite rivalry. This is not easy ... it is fuggin near impossible ... Sunni and Shi'ite sects have been murdering one another for centuries with limitless enthusiasm and if ANYONE ... Democrat, Republic, UN peacekeeper, Arab nation or armchair political commentator thinks they have the solution in the next few months they are insane.

Saddam may have been a murdering lunatic but his Sunni based Ba'ath party kept an iron-fisted rein on the inter-sect rivalries, he was the only one allowed to kill people. IMHO once the US leaves, regardless of what lame horse government is "set up" you have two potential scenarios.

1) The wave of Shi'ite fundamentalism / individualism keeps rolling and there's a wholesale massacre or subjugation of the Sunni minority. Once the Sunni's are crushed the Shi'ite factions resume killing one another to install their own favoured sheik/imam/ayatollah or they get an Iranian/Pakistanian suppplied set of Ayatollahs. Fundamentalist stronghold and terror base ... yippee.

2) A new Sunni strongman emerges and the Sunnis, who are inherently better organised than the Shi'ites, reorganised the Iraqi armed forces and subjugate the Shi'ite majority. Saddam V2.0 ... yippee.

Do I have a solution? No, it's almost insurmountable, maybe people should just stop pretending and pick one lesser of ten horrible evils and go with it (ie installing a less crazy Sunni strongman and handing him back the Iraq Army, or attempting to install a moderate theocracy), who knows. All I do know is that externally implimented micro-management won't work.
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Old 04-22-2004, 06:59 PM   #7
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I think the only option that has any chance of long term survival is to give the Kurds their autonomous zone in the north and declare it an independant state. Then allow the Shia to install a western friendly theocracy that rules the rest of the country.
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Old 04-22-2004, 07:17 PM   #8
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Saddam may have been a murdering lunatic but his Sunni based Ba'ath party kept an iron-fisted rein on the inter-sect rivalries, he was the only one allowed to kill people. IMHO once the US leaves, regardless of what lame horse government is "set up" you have two potential scenarios.
I totally agree with you.
However, I also think that once we internationalize it, we are going to need to have some type of entity in Iraq form a government. That will happen today, tomorrow or in 50 years from now. We can not sustain that endurance without bankrupting America. That being said, our easiest way out is to turn it over to Iraqis and let them take their crack at governance.
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Old 04-22-2004, 07:42 PM   #9
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f I were to make a plan it would be this....
- Ask the UN to go to neighboring countries- Saudi Arabia and Jordan to start with, to form an interim government and place it in Iraq. The philosophy would be a generic government whose responsibility is to provide for the general welfare but not the common defense.
- Increase military presence to 400,000 or 500,000 soldiers.
- Have the UN, Nato and the US provide the additional forces.
- Impose strict Marshall law on Iraq until it is completely calm.
- Place armed guards every quarter mile on every commerce route and all supply routes, thus guarantee secure deliveries and reconstruction efforts.
- Back up the armed guards with a squad of armed and armored fighting units every two miles along these routes.
- Every ten miles have a larger support squad in place
- Have the Arab government run the country until there is a solution in place for them to govern themselves.
- In the meantime, allow each sect, the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shiites to elect an equal number of representatives to a congressional committee. Have these members work to form the government free of any American role.
- We and the UN and NATO would provide any defense necessary, but have no role in the political other than to allow them to come up with the solutions they see necessary.
-Don't discontinue the reconstruction. Instead we need to be training Iraqis to have the businesses of reconstruction themselves. By doing this, we would foster free trade in Iraq and help them establish a capitalist society. Which in turn would foster a country which seeks Freedom not tyranny.
Those are good. Now are you willing to let a new 100+ billion dollar bill slide through Congress to fund all of that?
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Old 04-22-2004, 08:07 PM   #10
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In some areas the Sunni/Shia conflict has been temporarily set aside. They have decided to set aside their differences and live in peace and harmony...

...oh, and to shoot at the U.S. soldiers in those places.

But I guess, even as our troops are being shot at by two different sides, who were once bitter enemies, they can take comfort in knowing that they managed to bring them peace at last
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Old 04-22-2004, 08:09 PM   #11
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Maybe they just need to have a enemy. Somoene to strive for to kill.
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Old 04-23-2004, 07:16 AM   #12
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Those are good. Now are you willing to let a new 100+ billion dollar bill slide through Congress to fund all of that?
Unfortunately the 100 billion Congress will be asking for won't be that because every move we have made so far has been based on this damned election. That is, in my estimation a lousy way to run a war.

And I would gladly pay tax moneys to end this thing rather than continuing it in perpetuity.
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