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Old 03-30-2004, 10:05 AM   #1
bumbleroot
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Default FYI Polling

Thought this may be helpful for some people to understand a little about polling. This is only a precursory of the science of polling and gives a brief on how its conducted.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...lls/index.html
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Old 03-30-2004, 11:51 AM   #2
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My roommate and I are both white males, early to mid 30s, working the same job for the same pay, both have some college, middle class backgrounds and, obviously, live in the same area. However, our views about certain topics differ dramatically. You can do all the statistical analysis in the world and it doesn't mean jack. All it means is that they stereotype people based on certain factors. Now, while these factors may be many, that is still far from foolproof, as I know the situation described above is not all that rare. Sorry, in no way, shape or form can sampling .0005% of the population give you truly accurate results every time. I appreciate your effort in trying to explain how polls work, but that article does nothing to increase the credibility of polling in my book.
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Old 03-30-2004, 12:11 PM   #3
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Not a believer in well-established and proven statistical methods eh Wildane?
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Old 03-30-2004, 12:16 PM   #4
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Not a believer in well-established and proven statistical methods eh Wildane?
Not when you put it like that. I'll let common sense reign over statistics any day of the week. Why not try reading that and actually thinking about it before you blindly accept it as gospel?
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Old 03-30-2004, 12:51 PM   #5
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Hey, if you want to trust in your instinctual interpretations (let's not call it "common sense" shalln't we?) over statistical methods which have been accepted and used effectively for decades that's your business. But my money's on the guys who've written text books on this stuff over your tarot card method (or whatever you're doing that leads you to believe you have a better grasp on the subject than highly paid experts). The two careers I've had in my life so far have been in finance and science: needless to say I trust the numbers-guys more than some dude on an internet message board's "common sense."
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Old 03-30-2004, 12:54 PM   #6
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over statistical methods which have been accepted and used effectively for decades
And which often turn out to be flawed and just flat out wrong...you forgot to add those too.
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Old 03-30-2004, 12:57 PM   #7
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Good for you, Horm! /golfclap. How much more of a grasp on the subject do I need to tell me that there are well over 1,000 more personalities in over 200,000,000 people? I don't care if you believe me or not, I'm just explaining what *I* believe and encouraging others to think for themselves. If you, or anyone else wants me to believe that the opinions of 1,000 people accurately reflect the opinions of 200,000,000 folks, you'll have to break it down a little better than they did. In other words, try making it logical.
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Old 03-30-2004, 01:13 PM   #8
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I give you guys on the right credit: when presented with logic or overwhelming evidence against your position, you hold the line better than the front 5 of the '93 Cowboys. Undaunted by the truth, you will not be moved!
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Old 03-30-2004, 01:14 PM   #9
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One of the larger problems with polling is that most people don't want to take polls.

In an ideal world, the demographics would in fact provide an accurate guesstimate of how the people in general feel about a subject. Unfortunately this is NOT an ideal world.

In the real world, taking telephone surveys/polls as an example since I used to work in that field... the people calling to give people the chance to give thier opinions on the issues generally get lied to, hung up on, harassed, insulted, and cursed out by nearly everyone. Based on having done this in the past, I'd say that for every one completed survey or poll that I got, I was hung up on by over 100 people. In some areas of the country it was worse... San Diego was always very nasty, New York was just plain UGLY, and almost any southern state was like trying to pull an elephant through the eye of a needle.

Probably not explaining that well... basically, in an ideal world everyone would take the poll and they'd be able to get a better ratio than 1000:200000 -- something more along the lines of 50000:200000 which would, IMO, be a pretty good indication of what most of the people think.

Just adding my 2 cents.
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Old 04-02-2004, 12:20 AM   #10
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Sorry, in no way, shape or form can sampling .0005% of the population give you truly accurate results every time. I appreciate your effort in trying to explain how polls work, but that article does nothing to increase the credibility of polling in my
Actually, they are well proven to be quite accurate, with your typical 3% error. I've posted shit on this in the past, but it's not going to break my heart if people choose not to believe. It's not that article even, do your research, and you'll see that the reputable organizations, such as Gallup are extremely accurate with polling results.

And Kulani, I don't know who you worked for, but I worked for Gallup in the past, and I was very rarely hung up on, harassed or cursed out. Sometimes I got a no thanks, or not right now, but in the vast majority of the calls, I was treated extremely pleasantly and often left work several hours early because my quota for the day was done. It was a grand way to make extra cash, because I rarely had to work a full day for a full days pay. It was a great system for when my children were babies. Great pay for very little time.

Basically, we got a set $/per hour rate, regardless of success. However, for example, if I made the 100 successful calls I needed for my shift, I was done as soon as I was done...I could stay longer if I wanted the extra $$$.
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Its true, Cao has a huge epenis. And not just long, but thick. That fucker looks like a pringles can when she waves it around.
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Old 04-02-2004, 02:46 PM   #11
Kulani Autumnwood
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Wish they were all like that... but I think it's different being able to say "I'm calling from Gallup" and having the whole name recognition thing, and calling from "a reputable research agency" <rolls eyes>

I know that one of the companies in the san diego area (not one I worked for) pays by the complete... so that ones results I wouldn't trust with a priests blessing on em heh. It would be just TOO tempting to "pad" your paycheck by a couple few completes...

The one I worked for in san diego, thier problem was that they based pay off of your QA scores... but didn't ever QA the QAs... so, it was a fairly common bit of office politics that the QA staff would extract "favors" for good pay -- not like sex or nothing, but small stuff... like smokes. It was very common for them to "request" smokes on break, then QA you badly afterwards if you didn't give em up. <shrug>

The one I worked at in denver, they hired mostly highschool students. And one of the managers was selling drugs on the call floor... it was just not a good enviroment, and having worked there I wouldn't trust thier results either heh.
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Old 04-02-2004, 03:04 PM   #12
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Yeah, I'm sure the Gallup name helped tremendously, and the environment working there was a ton of fun. We worked for huge companies, and got to do mostly serious polls, but even fun ones like the old Bud beer Superbowl polls.

Fun times.

You didn't have to pad your numbers, because there was never a need to, and everything you did got taped anyway, so you'd get bounced to the curb if you were caught faking. And they reviewed like 10-20% of everything you did, so you'd get caught in a hurry if you did something like that. We were mostly college kids, or young mothers, or both tho.
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Originally Posted by Shardmoon
Its true, Cao has a huge epenis. And not just long, but thick. That fucker looks like a pringles can when she waves it around.
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Old 04-02-2004, 10:38 PM   #13
Kulani Autumnwood
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Think probably a large part in the difference in cheating rates is because, with the first company, it was mostly kids... and generally not the kind I preferred to associate with (druggies and gang bangers... wasn't the best neighborhood). Second company was signifigantly less cheating and it was mostly college age and older employees. Still was some, but a good deal less.
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