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Old 01-04-2008, 12:51 PM   #1
AjTaliesen
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Default Primary thoughts

McCain is actually in a stong position right now. Remember he was playing for third and he got it, he's not well liked in Iowa and has spurned the state numerous times, he's hoping to do well in New Hampshire and has been concentrating allot of his efforts outside of Iowa.

Hilary is still in a strong position as well, for much of the same reasons.

Remember that Iowa's biggest boon to the winners there is money: Obama and Huckabee just got a big boost to thier war chests. This makes Obama an even stronger contentder than he already was, and allows Huckabee to throw money with the bitg boys now, but there's something much bigger working against Huckabee:

McCain, Rudy, and Clinton have survived the national media microscope for decades. Obama and Edwards for over four years. The longer they've been there doesn't just mean easier name rocognition, it also means they are actually harder to attack, largely becuase we've already heard it. People who hate Hilary aren't going to hate her even more becuase of any adds you run about her. Any attack you want to make on Hilary now falls under the category of "Heard it, watched the hearings about it, read the debates about it, bought the T-shirt, known for years." There's very little new that can be said to lower peoples opinion of her, while at the same time she still has room to convince fence sitters that she is viable.

Same for McCain: all the attacks you can make have been made over and over again already.

Huckabee on the other hand is a fresh name and just bought himself a new shirt with a big red target on it. Same with Romney (who has already suffered from Huckabee's attacks recently).

Even with the win in Iowa, I'm still not yet predicting a win for Huckabee, I think he and Romney beat each other up too much and McCain walks with the nomination. If Huckleberry is as smart as he seems so far, he will be playing for a VP nomination. (Though I personally would love to see a stronger showing from Thompson).

For the Dem's it's still a Hilary/Obama race, though the VP spot will be interesting and unusual. You have to pay attention to electorial politics (which the DNC has been weak on both of the last two Presidential runs) and neither would really bring enough to the other. If Hilary was nominated who would help her get the South and bible belt? Not Obama, and even though Edwards on paper would, in reality we already know he doesnt deliver even his own state in a general. Same thing is true with an Obama win. As a DNC nominee they would already get most of the African American and Liberal womens vote. I think it's still possible to see a Richardson nod for VP, to bring in Hispanic Christians and oddly enough, possibly an even stronger showing in the South than underperforming Edwards.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:57 PM   #2
ShardmoonVer.1
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McCain is loathed by the more conservative branch of the party and would only get their support if he some how got the nomination. That goes double for Huckabee.

It really is a choice between a giant douche and a turd sandwhich.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:12 PM   #3
FafnerMorell
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Originally Posted by ShardmoonVer.1 View Post
It really is a choice between a giant douche and a turd sandwhich.
It always is.
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Old 01-05-2008, 05:41 AM   #4
bumbleroot
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If Hilary was nominated who would help her get the South and bible belt?
James Webb Matches up best for any electee.
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