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Old 07-02-2009, 08:11 AM   #1
Chiteng
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Default Hyperinflation?

Really a question for Beal.

Looking at the numbers, I dont see how we will avoid hyper-inflation.
If that happens we are all in the shitter. Its just a question of where your standing when the roof falls in.

However, I am NOT, an economist. I am a historian.

So I admit, I dont know all there is to know. But I sure as hell know I am glad I dont depend on a pension.
Or annuity.
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Old 07-02-2009, 08:35 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by Chiteng View Post
However, I am NOT, an economist. I am a historian.

Really?
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Old 07-02-2009, 11:27 AM   #3
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Evidently he doesn't think, therefor he is NOT.

That or he misplaced a comma.
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Old 07-02-2009, 12:12 PM   #4
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Perhaps he's a economist & historian named "NOT"? (fuck that overly modest "e.e. cummings" with his all-lowercase - Chit goes with all uppercase).
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Old 07-02-2009, 03:01 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by GraemeFaelban View Post
Evidently he doesn't think, therefore he is NOT.

That or he misplaced a comma.
Let me fix the spelling of your puntuation critique.
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Old 07-02-2009, 03:20 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by martigan View Post
let me fix the spelling of your puntuation critique.
qft

Those in glass houses....yadda yadda yadda....
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I know, you're in Ottawa, Davek. Still, I can't help but /poke you.
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Old 07-02-2009, 05:33 PM   #7
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...you missed the point...
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Old 07-03-2009, 04:15 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Martigan View Post
...you missed the point...
That's what they all say when they're busted.
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Man that just rolls off the tongue nicely.

Originally Posted by Karthanon View Post
I know, you're in Ottawa, Davek. Still, I can't help but /poke you.
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And you wonder why I don't play nice with you? You leave my man buttons alone.. Those are Davek's.
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Old 07-03-2009, 07:39 AM   #9
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On a slightly more serious note, if one is concerned about US hyperinflation, you can easily invest in TIPS or foreign stocks. Foreign bonds don't seem to be as widely available (fewer mutual funds offer them, but they're out there - and I hear they're gaining popularity).

In the event of real hyperinflation, I'd suspect it's possible the government might not honor TIPS to the full extent (there's already a lot of complaining that the government's CPI-adjustment is fudged in their favor).

For folks with a serious interest in it, there's a chart here
http://www.optimist123.com/.a/6a00d8...18cffc8970b-pi

I find "www.optimist123.com" an interesting spot for info - the economist is a Ron-Paul-hater, but he's got some good points (although, as the "optimist" in the name of the web site alludes to, he's very much a fan of "the Federal Reserve knows what they're doing, the deficit is under control, it's all going to work out OK as long as no one does something really stupid".

While I'm expecting a rise in inflation over the next 5 years (with all the cash pumped into the economy, it's going to a bitch to unwind), I don't expect it to hit hyperinflation. If nothing else, China seems to have figured out that someone needs to buy all the crap they're making, and until their internal markets (and India's) grow the middle class a lot more, the US is pretty much the only game in town.

It's also interesting to see the American consumer start saving again. I'd like to hope that as more and more Americans put their own finances in order, they'll start to expect their government to do the same.
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Old 07-03-2009, 09:22 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by FafnerMorell View Post
On a slightly more serious note, if one is concerned about US hyperinflation, you can easily invest in TIPS or foreign stocks. Foreign bonds don't seem to be as widely available (fewer mutual funds offer them, but they're out there - and I hear they're gaining popularity).

In the event of real hyperinflation, I'd suspect it's possible the government might not honor TIPS to the full extent (there's already a lot of complaining that the government's CPI-adjustment is fudged in their favor).

For folks with a serious interest in it, there's a chart here
http://www.optimist123.com/.a/6a00d8...18cffc8970b-pi

I find "www.optimist123.com" an interesting spot for info - the economist is a Ron-Paul-hater, but he's got some good points (although, as the "optimist" in the name of the web site alludes to, he's very much a fan of "the Federal Reserve knows what they're doing, the deficit is under control, it's all going to work out OK as long as no one does something really stupid".

While I'm expecting a rise in inflation over the next 5 years (with all the cash pumped into the economy, it's going to a bitch to unwind), I don't expect it to hit hyperinflation. If nothing else, China seems to have figured out that someone needs to buy all the crap they're making, and until their internal markets (and India's) grow the middle class a lot more, the US is pretty much the only game in town.

It's also interesting to see the American consumer start saving again. I'd like to hope that as more and more Americans put their own finances in order, they'll start to expect their government to do the same.
Well I think that what we are seeing is a kind of model for the collapse of traditional capitalism.
Not caused by any of the normal forces, but by human nature.
As info tech has made the access to information fast and easy, and the fact that no one actually enjoys working hard to get ahead, the idea of cheating 'just a little' to shorten the time it will take to become 'rich'
becomes a type of holy grail. Instead of censuring such people, society covertly LAUDS them.
Not explicitly of course, we are not yet that far degraded.

So the mindset of 'covert' pyramids(for example) or more traditional simple fraud and theft.
Or legal methods such as pioneered by Gould, who gutted and pocketed his own companies assets
and walked away a free man, because it wasnt illegal.

The desire to game the system has become edemic. and thus the virtues or simple capitalism, are corrupted and defeated
by the oldest bane of all, human greed.

I suspect that someone with the skill could plot a chart showing at what point the antics of the thieves start to
make the capitalist model fail. Quite likely a bell curve of some type.
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Old 07-03-2009, 10:06 AM   #11
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I don't foresee hyperinflation any time soon. Things would have to get a lot worse than they are. We still have the option to stop spending so damn much money, which I believe even Obama would do if faced with triple-digit inflation. In the past, governments created hyperinflation because they had no choice. They had no tax base and/or no way to spend less money (as with Germany's debts after WWI) so they were left with only that one option.

The other scenario which leads to hyperinflation is where the world dumps the dollar. This is certainly possible, but unlikely, because everyone with the power to dump billions of T-Bonds on the market also has an interest in seeing the dollar remain stable.

In any case, the risk of any kind of inflation is certainly present, and you would have to be crazy not to see some devaluation of the dollar coming. I just don't think it will get to the point where people are lugging around $100,000 for a trip to the grocery story.
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Old 07-03-2009, 11:04 AM   #12
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Thanks for your posts, gentlemen.
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Old 07-06-2009, 05:36 AM   #13
FafnerMorell
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Originally Posted by Chiteng View Post
Well I think that what we are seeing is a kind of model for the collapse of traditional capitalism.
Not caused by any of the normal forces, but by human nature.
As info tech has made the access to information fast and easy, and the fact that no one actually enjoys working hard to get ahead, the idea of cheating 'just a little' to shorten the time it will take to become 'rich'
becomes a type of holy grail. Instead of censuring such people, society covertly LAUDS them.
Not explicitly of course, we are not yet that far degraded.

So the mindset of 'covert' pyramids(for example) or more traditional simple fraud and theft.
Or legal methods such as pioneered by Gould, who gutted and pocketed his own companies assets
and walked away a free man, because it wasnt illegal.

The desire to game the system has become edemic. and thus the virtues or simple capitalism, are corrupted and defeated
by the oldest bane of all, human greed.

I suspect that someone with the skill could plot a chart showing at what point the antics of the thieves start to
make the capitalist model fail. Quite likely a bell curve of some type.
Well, capitalism (depending on how you defined it) has been pretty resilent. Like a phoenix, it emerge from the numerous bank crashes of the late 1800s & early 1900s, the Great Depression, the Carter years, the stumbling of 1987, the dot.com crash of 2000-02, Enron, etc.

From a historical perspective, I suspect what we're going to see coming out of this current mess will be more global controls/regulations (followed shortly by firms figuring out how to exploit these). As you say, greed is the oldest bane (followed closely by lust, gluttony and then a nap/sloth). It's possible that 100 years from now, folks will point to late 20th century America as the crest of a high and beautiful wave. But if that does happen, I don't think it will be capitalism they're referring to, but a hyperpower America era or such.

Even still, I'm reminded of two other Hunter Thompson quotes: Myths and legends die hard in America. We love them for the extra dimension they provide, the illusion of near-infinite possibility to erase the narrow confines of most men's reality. Weird heroes and mould-breaking champions exist as living proof to those who need it that the tyranny of 'the rat race' is not yet final. and "In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile—and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. We owe that to ourselves and our crippled self-image as something better than a nation of panicked sheep."

I rather hope that what's going to come out of this mess is something better. Something that brushes aside the pigs and the sheeps. Something that is truly human. But I don't see that killing capitalism - just revitalizing it.
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From this day to the ending of the world,"
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Old 07-06-2009, 06:31 AM   #14
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Oh, and since I love attaching comics that seem (at least to me) to fit in with a thread.
http://comics.com/cow&boy/2009-07-06/
(SFW)
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"This story shall the good man teach his son;...
From this day to the ending of the world,"
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