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Old 09-29-2008, 07:05 PM   #26
Hormadrune
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Gold has always seemed to me a ridiculous hedge against the larger market. I'm hardly a complex investor by any means at this point, but I just don't see it as smart money.
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:22 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Hormadrune View Post
Gold has always seemed to me a ridiculous hedge against the larger market. I'm hardly a complex investor by any means at this point, but I just don't see it as smart money.
I'd sort of agree with you except that gold is a commodity, really.

People do treat it like it's still the standard for the dollar, which is foolish - gold will never again be the standard for the dollar, so I'm with you there. It's just a place to park your dollars while the rest of the world panics.

I'm not sure that gold isn't as good as, say, wheat, or soybeans, or porkbellies. Commodities all tend to be pretty good bets in bear markets, because even if times are bad, people still gotta eat and build shit.
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Old 09-29-2008, 10:27 PM   #28
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I'd buy into frozen concentrated orange juice but I got bit by that once already.
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Old 09-29-2008, 10:31 PM   #29
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Well, this is a big circle to me: At the local Bakery a bread Roll (baked today, every day on premises) now costs 40c. Buy 3 for a dollar, six bucks is 18 bread Rolls, right. Months ago it was 4 for a dollar and 5 bucks got you 20. About 2-3 years back or less (dunno) it was 6 a dollar and so on.

The price of food went up with diesel costs on the price of Oil and any fuel taxes to freight supply to Market. The entire consumer Market shifted with the nominal price of Oil.

Start with grain to Mill: Flour Mills deliver wholesale to market Distributors, wholesale Market distribution supplies commercial business with the delivered raw goods, directly affecting end Product prices at the retailer which then passes onto the consumer. Fuel price spanning the entire cycle. Fuel price drops: Supply delivery costs go down across the board, profit margins shift maybe, and maybe food commodities cost less to Produce. Though consumer Demand stays. Do consumer food prices fall?

That's out of the way now for some scope.

Wheat, Rice and maybe Corn are probably the three most basic food items. Nine tenths of the disinterested planet depend's on one, or more than one, of any from the three staple grain crops for its own continued survival.

Investing in Primary Industry grain production, a smart business profile trend's statistical dividend forecasting upon a crop spread over multi-regional Harvests. The market is huge.

Speculators can bid shares in a stake, coming onboard. About then the assets necessitate steering management by a company Board, operating at scales bigger than just little you can alone. Exit the district miller, enter Agribusiness. Listing trading price on the Exchange: "Oh muh gawd, that Broker basstid shorted a bushel. Oh wait, there's an ear of grain in that new Corn beard. The Close shall finish higher." Tomorrow, and tomorrow's weather and yet Tomorrow onward creeps this petty pace.

Crop harvest variability affects prices, highly volatile Returns over weather but overall a seasonal predictability, if you know some stuff about surplus storage and pad up for periodic climactic lean stretches. Then them bumper years. Go go meteorological miracle.

If the commodity Portfolio is in marketing crop Distribution, then costs of freight hits your stock purchasin' powah and so does the price of grain. Got to set a right price and gotta find buyers at your price, literally wheeling and dealing all the time. Hands on stuff.

But anyway, the economic scenario is a dog chasing its tail but easier to split the ends from the means. If I haven't said anything new I spent too long writing this much.
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Old 09-30-2008, 03:55 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Hormadrune View Post
Gold has always seemed to me a ridiculous hedge against the larger market. I'm hardly a complex investor by any means at this point, but I just don't see it as smart money.
It's always been pretty steady as an investment, overall. I've been listening to alledged kooks ranting to buy gold for about 3 years now.

Looks like they might have had something.
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:18 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Drysdale View Post
It's always been pretty steady as an investment, overall. I've been listening to alledged kooks ranting to buy gold for about 3 years now.

Looks like they might have had something.

Hmmm....come to think of it, I haven't really been spammed by the gold sellers in WoW recently. I guess the market is taking a hit!
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:22 AM   #32
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Funny thing is, I could see an economics student doing a PhD thesis on using MMORPG currency as a hedge against the US dollar or such. Be kind of interesting to see how that works.
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Old 09-30-2008, 05:12 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by FafnerMorell View Post
Funny thing is, I could see an economics student doing a PhD thesis on using MMORPG currency as a hedge against the US dollar or such. Be kind of interesting to see how that works.
Pfff, you'd get killed by mudflation.

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Old 09-30-2008, 08:14 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Davek View Post
Hmmm....come to think of it, I haven't really been spammed by the gold sellers in WoW recently. I guess the market is taking a hit!
I know a person whom bought from them...... he ended up with less than half the gold and a 200 dollar phone bill........ I told him next time he wants to buy 5k gold to talk to me he could save 150 dollars........ on the bright side I never did like when people bought gold (wow) or plat in eq..... lazy fux.
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Old 09-30-2008, 09:21 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Chiteng View Post
It doesnt work because the innocent are being hurt along w the guilty
You mean all those "innocent people" who borrowed way more than they could afford with no intentions? Oh those people.. the every day Joe's. Funny how everyone talks about how everything should be done to save their homes, without realizing they are a huge part of the issues going on. But we must keep American's in their homes! Oh wait, they are the ones that bought homes with no money down and used more leverage than any sane investor would ever do.... innocent my ass.

But maybe you mean someone else.. so who do you define exactly as being innocent and hurt? Is it people losing their homes? Is it people losing money in the market? Taxpayers in the bailout? There's lot of pieces to the puzzle. To blindly say that "innocent people are being hurt" doesn't mean much. Who?
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Old 09-30-2008, 10:03 AM   #36
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To blindly say that "innocent people are being hurt" doesn't mean much. Who?
are you seriously asking the Mighty Chiteng for specifics? You should know better, I smite thee!!!

ooooh let me put your mantra up Chiteng, I'll save you time...

"I don't answer to you Tuan, you play by my (and by whatever is holy, I'll never define them) rules of debate or you get NOTHING!!!! NOOOOTTTTHHHIIIINGGG!!!!!....KKKHHHHAAAAAAANNNNNNN!!!!!"

On a more serious note, the ramifications of all of this are so cloudy to me I don't know if I want to support the bailout or not. On principle, I don't believe in the Government using taxes to bail out private business, but how will a failure of this magnitude affect me and my wife? I was recently laid off, so have a nice bank nest egg right now to support my finishing my degree (One more semester), but what is this going to do to job prospects in 6 months when I get my piece of paper that says I can legally engineer building or is this going to interfere with a college loan to help pay whatever my scholarships don't?
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Old 09-30-2008, 10:11 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Chiteng
To blindly say that "innocent people are being hurt" doesn't mean much. Who?
Well, if they aren't rich, they must be innocent! Granted, banks shouldn't have been pushing those types of loans so hard on folks, but those folks deserve the blame, too. Chit believes it's only the wealthy that made bad decisions. Maybe I'm a bit cold-hearted, but I just can't seem to find much sympathy for people who lose their homes because they got into loans they had no business getting into.
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Old 09-30-2008, 10:34 AM   #38
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They keep saying we'll see that money again in the future...

Anyone know of any examples of the US Govt. actually making a profit?
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Old 09-30-2008, 11:26 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Tuan00Dorf View Post
You mean all those "innocent people" who borrowed way more than they could afford with no intentions? Oh those people.. the every day Joe's. Funny how everyone talks about how everything should be done to save their homes, without realizing they are a huge part of the issues going on. But we must keep American's in their homes! Oh wait, they are the ones that bought homes with no money down and used more leverage than any sane investor would ever do.... innocent my ass.

But maybe you mean someone else.. so who do you define exactly as being innocent and hurt? Is it people losing their homes? Is it people losing money in the market? Taxpayers in the bailout? There's lot of pieces to the puzzle. To blindly say that "innocent people are being hurt" doesn't mean much. Who?
Nope I mean people that have done nothing related to the cause of the meltdown. BUT who's lives are effected anyways. Losing their jobs for example. Or having their 401k shed value.
Or whatever.

Why exactly are we dependant on foreign money? That is a terrible mistake.
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Old 09-30-2008, 11:54 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Drysdale View Post
They keep saying we'll see that money again in the future...

Anyone know of any examples of the US Govt. actually making a profit?
I have one - the G.I. Bill.

The G.I. Bill was, in my opinion, one of the most successful government programs in history. For a paltry government investment, it returned HUGE over time:

A study made by the Joint Economic Committee of the U. S. Congress in 1988 with the dollar figures updated to 2006 dollars “revealed that the costs to the government of sending every G.I. to college who wanted to go after World War II amounted to 51 billion dollars. The return on that investment was found to be 260 billion dollars in increased economic output from those educated G.I.s—their average incomes were that much higher than their peers. Another 93 billion in extra taxes paid on that income rolled in. That’s a gross profit of 383 billion dollars. Seven dollars earned for every dollar invested is a pretty good return.” And this does not include any figures for the improved life style of the veterans.
The GI Bill directly fueled the industrial and economic boom in the 1950-1960s. Fully 50% of NASA engineers that developed manned space flights were GI Bill recipients.

The GI Bill beneficiary community includes fourteen Nobel Prize winners, three supreme court justices, a whole host of senators, representatives, gubernatorial leaders and other elected officials, not to mention three U.S. Presidents, three secretaries of state, and one former Vice President with a decidedly 'green' penchant...

Oh, did I mention the actors? Paul Newman, GI Bill recipient, whose philanthropic activities has raised hundreds of millions of dollars for charity..

Walter Matthau, Gene Hackman, Robert Duvall, Clint Eastwood, all made pretty good names for themselves.

Writers, artists, poets, and one notable ex-paratrooper made good on the education they received from Uncle Sam...


One more note - the GI Bill allowed people who would otherwise never had any chance at a college education to move up in the world, breaking the class structure that existed prior to WWII. Michael Perlman mentions it in his book -
We get a feel for the profound importance of the GI Bill for lower-class citizens from an account of a reunion of the 1944 high school class from
Turtle Creek, Pennsylvania, a poor, working-class community. The author,
Edwin Kiester, Jr., himself a beneficiary of the GI Bill, wrote that his
class had 103 male graduates in a high school class of 270. Kiester
reported with some evident pride that:

... thirty earned college degrees, nearly ten times as many as had in
the past; 28 of the 30 attended college under the GI Bill of Rights. The
class produced ten engineers, a psychologist, a microbiologist, an
entomologist, two physicists, a teacherâprincipal, three professors, a
social worker, a pharmacist, several entrepreneurs, a stockbroker, and a
journalist [Kiester himself]. The next year's class matched the
30âpercent college attendance almost exactly. The 110 male graduates of
1945 included a federal appellate judge and three lawyers, another
stockbroker, a personnel counselor, and another wave of teachers and
engineers. For almost all of them, their college diploma was a family
first. Some of their parents had not completed elementary school and a
few could not read or write English. [Kiester 1994, p. 132]
Getting a college education was a point of pride for these families (one I have experienced myself - my Bachelor's degree was the first in my family's 400 year history). It opened up opportunities for the GIs that they would never have seen without an education.


If there was ever any government program that could be called a success, this one was it. If they all looked like this, I think Americans would be much happier and have much more faith in our government.


One more thing - the GI Bill was not a gift: it was earned by those who served us and survived. We also have to remember that some of those GIs never came back home to go to school. That was the risk of education for those guys. I'm a biased fan of the Greatest Generation, true, but if there was any group of people more worthy of spending a great amount of capital on, I can't think of one...
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:18 PM   #41
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Reminisce over your lost youth to this song. Anyone else heard it before? I think it's appropriate for the Credit crunch.
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