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Old 07-29-2008, 04:29 PM   #1
bumbleroot
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Default Obama's advantage

Read this article
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/us...hp&oref=slogin
This particular passage has been integral in how Obama has politicked.
At the law school, Mr. Obama taught three courses, ascending from lecturer to senior lecturer, a title otherwise carried only by a few federal judges. His most traditional course was an elective in the due process and equal protection areas of constitutional law. Mr. Obama’s voting rights class traced the evolution of election law, from the disenfranchisement of blacks to gerrymandering to contemporary debates over race-based districting and campaign finance. Mr. Obama was so interested in the subject he helped Richard Pildes, a professor at New York University, develop what is now a leading casebook in the field.
He was first elected to office by eliminating his opponents on a technicality. He beat Hillary by playing the delegate game well in each district. The point is, this guy knows how to play the election game at the local levels and translate that into larger victories. In other words, he knows how to micromanage a campaign to his advantage.
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Old 07-29-2008, 04:34 PM   #2
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hilary was a idiot. only morons and extream lefties woulda voted for her
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Old 07-29-2008, 05:36 PM   #3
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Heck, Obama's got a lot going for him:

- After 8 years of Bush, and the Republican mess of Congress under him (not that the past 2 years of Democratic Congress have been less of a disaster, but still), folks are anxious for Bush & anything-Bush to be gone, which ties in perfectly to his agent of "change", and minimizes his inexperience.

- He's an excellent speaker. He seems intelligent, and appears to have reasonable good character. I'd take him over Gore or Kerry.

- While Michelle comes in for a lot of criticism about her "not proud of America" comment, frankly, I think she goes over a lot better than Kerry's or Gore's wife did.

- In the primary, his campaign organization did a lot better than Hillary's, which I never would have expected. Granted, over 50% of the nation hates Hillary, but I could have seen her winning the presidency even then.

- McCain's campaign so far has lacked energy and a strong message. A lot of folks are comparing it to Dole's in '96. That said, McCain's got a strong advantage in his experience - he's been around forever, and while few folks would agree with everyone of his positions over the years, he's always come across as someone who wants to do the right thing for America, and has been willing to compromise to push things forward.

I'd be surprised if Obama doesn't win the electoral college & thus the Presidency. I think he could still lose it if the Democrats, through collective stupidity, either make him look bad or make McCain look really good by comparison (McCain's energy policy is looking real good compared to the Demodisaster).
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Old 07-29-2008, 06:21 PM   #4
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Oh'bama! took advantage of an over-confident Hillary, and insane Bill and a divided party. Please drive thru...

Right now he is hanging onto the hype that the media has created around him. and even in the face of an EXTREMELY BIAS and supportive media..and all the air play he is getting... McCain is gaining on him fast.

No matter how much you try and sell "change", there is a time and place for it. When Clinton got elected, we were done with DS1, the economy was starting to look up.. he [seemed to be] the right fit at the right time. However, this time is different. We know the economy is in the shitter and nobody has been able to place the blame on either party. We know we have to maintain in Iraq - We know we have to face-down Iran - We know there is still plenty of work to be done in Afghanistan - We know terrorist are still working against us and even rebuilding. Oh'bama! doesnt have any good answers for any of those things.
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Old 07-29-2008, 06:50 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Fafner
I think she goes over a lot better than Kerry's or Gore's wife did.
LOL, that ain't sayin' much.
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Old 07-29-2008, 07:04 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Wildane View Post
LOL, that ain't sayin' much.
Is it just me, or does she look like she has a wad of Copenhagen in her lower lip???
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Old 07-29-2008, 08:50 PM   #7
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I actually agree with both Faf and Bumbles. He knows the political game and plays it very well.

It's actually fairly obvious at this point, given that a largely inneffectual Senator with no known stance on any actual issue is still able to lead nationally for the Presidential race. It's easy to play when you've got the cards, I have to be a little impressed at the guy who runs the table with 6 high.
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Old 07-30-2008, 03:01 AM   #8
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Oh'bama! took advantage of an over-confident Hillary, and insane Bill and a divided party. Please drive thru...
No, the reason he won was because he played the delegate game well.
In other words, he identified the districts with an odd number of delegates. He campaigned heavily there and had strong campaign staff representation there. Then he would gain delegates by winning 2 of 3 or 3 of 5 for example. In the even districts he would only need to win something like 33% of the vote to get the same number of delegates. So he didn't spend his time or money in those districts. He then used his delegate advantage to prop his campaign up and to his advantage electability was the card that Hillary played.
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Old 07-30-2008, 03:40 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by bumbleroot View Post
No, the reason he won was because he played the delegate game well.
In other words, he identified the districts with an odd number of delegates. He campaigned heavily there and had strong campaign staff representation there. Then he would gain delegates by winning 2 of 3 or 3 of 5 for example. In the even districts he would only need to win something like 33% of the vote to get the same number of delegates. So he didn't spend his time or money in those districts. He then used his delegate advantage to prop his campaign up and to his advantage electability was the card that Hillary played.
Well... obviously he focused on where he had a chance. But it wasnt because he had this master scheme from day one. He come out behind in almost every poll. Hillary, IMO, just knew she had it in the bag.

Also... Oh'bama! didnt sweep anything. He barely..baaaarrrrrlllly got enough. So basically he is only liked by 55-60% of his party voters. FAR from anything impressive....
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Old 07-31-2008, 05:20 AM   #10
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Actually, bumbles is very correct on Obama's campaign strategy against HRC, notwithstanding the Clinton campaign gaffes and misguided opening play of inevitability. Obama's approach to getting delegates was a smart move. Rheaton, you also have to understand that the primary process for Democrats is radically different from the Repubs, and Obama knew that and leveraged the states with a caucus system against Hillary's approach to big states = big delegate numbers. It was a good strategy. Mind you, in 2006, nearly everyone in the DNC and the press were sure that HRC was going to be the Dem candidate. I was sure of it, too. In 2006, Barack Obama was ogled by very few news organizations and less likely to get a nomination nod than Ralph Nader. What a different world it is today.

Faf also makes excellent observations. He is a gifted speaker, he has a well-organized campaign, and whatever faults he has, seems to be nice enough.

John McCain and every single Republican would do well to recognize those observations, because the success for this election cycle is not in ridiculous comparison ads to Britney. Succeeding against Obama will require a solid organization, a clear message, and clear leadership not only from McCain but in the Republican party as well. Only now are they starting to coalesce around a few key strategies.

I would offer this - past history has taught us that McCain has won his biggest victories when he was running behind in the polls. I point to his turnaround primary victories in South Carolina and Florida, when only the month before his campaign was in the dust. He was out of money, out of support, and down the list of likely winners. Romney and Huckabee were all the rage, and it was expected that McCain would have to throw in the towel with a concession speech in Florida.

And here we are again, with McCain's lackluster campaign strategy, a Republican party in disarray, a war still waging in the middle East, oil prices still exceedingly high, an unpopular President and even more unpopular Congress. Obama is fresh off his European tour, for all the world a shoe-in for the Presidency if the media is to be believed, the Democrats preparing for a sweep in the House and Senate, and a coronation being planned in Denver.

Yet even with the Euro-fest Obama bounce, McCain still runs nearly even in most general polls, having not lifted a finger, having not yet found his voice, and most of all, running as the 'underdog'. My friends, we have seen this before. Ask Mitt Romney.
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Old 07-31-2008, 05:23 AM   #11
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I disagree with the assessment that HRC was the presumptive nominee even with in her own party. Go back to the 2004 convention and note that it was Obama who gave the keynote speech. A nobody state senator with no name recognition outside his own party.

Nope. Hillary was the one paddling up hill from the start. She just didnt know it.
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Old 07-31-2008, 05:42 AM   #12
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Boy, oh, boy, sometimes I really hate being right all the time...
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